| Balancing Maliki - Shifting Coalitions in Iraqi Politics and the Rise of the Iraqi Parliament Written by Jeremy Domergue and Marisa Cochrane, The Institute for the Study of War June 26, 2009 Executive Summary Iraq’s political map has changed dramatically since the January 31, 2009 provincial • elections, as political parties have formed new national coalitions. Prime Minister Maliki’s State of the Law coalition fared the best in the elections, and had the • upper hand in choosing alliance partners in Iraq’s provinces. Maliki formed alliances of convenience in the provinces while courting the Sadrists and the • National Dialogue Front as potential parliamentary partners. Maliki’s efforts to reconcile with these groups and their supporters failed, therefore the national alliances he desired did not emerge. The realignment towards the Prime Minister in the provinces and Maliki’s efforts to • consolidate control through alliances at the national level nevertheless generated new coalitions in Parliament that aimed to limit his increasing power. The debate over the selection of a new Iraqi Council of Representatives Speaker and • the 2009 budget forced the main political blocs in the parliament to reevaluate their relationships vis-à-vis Maliki and other parties. The Iraqi Council of Representatives used its powers to curb the strength of the Prime • Minister and executive branch – for example, in cutting funds for the Prime Minister’s office in the 2009 budget and compelling his ministers and generals to testify before them. After provincial elections, Maliki and the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI), the • largest Shi’a party in the anti-Maliki coalition, were at a political impasse. ISCI, defeated in the provincial elections, needed a way to restore its prestige and o survive the national elections scheduled for January 2010. Maliki wanted to remove the potential for a no-confidence vote that would remove o him from office. Maliki and ISCI are now negotiating to re-partner nationally as the United Iraqi Alliance • (UIA), which would effectively ally the two largest Shi’a parties in Iraq. Senior members of the Iranian regime have actively supported a Maliki-ISCI alliance in the • 2010 elections – and the Shi’a parties have been responsive to their interventions. ISCI leader Abdul Aziz al-Hakim has encouraged these negotiations from his o hospital room in Tehran, which nearly every senior Iraqi leader has visited since May ostensibly to pay respects to the dying Hakim and to discuss recent political developments.  |
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